Americans are increasingly rejecting the two major political parties, according to new polling.
Just under half, 45%, of U.S. adults now identify as independents, a new Gallup survey found. That’s a substantial shift from 20 years ago, when closer to one-third of Americans said they didn’t identify with the Democrats or Republicans.
Younger people, in particular, are rejecting the parties at much higher rates than older generations. More than half of Generation Z and Millennials identify as political independents, while a majority of older generations side with a party. That’s different from the past, when more young adults identified with the Democrats or the Republicans. And it’s part of the reason why frequent, dramatic swings in political power may become increasingly normal.
Democrats regain the edge with political independents
Independents have long been the largest political group in the U.S., and their numbers have increased over the last 15 years. But often, they’re more inclined to side with one of the parties over the other.
This year, the Democratic Party gained the partisanship edge when independents were asked whether they lean more toward the Democratic or Republican Party. Nearly half, 47%, of U.S. adults now identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 42% are Republicans or lean Republican. This is an indication of how Americans are feeling about their political affiliations, and it may not be reflected in voters’ actual registration.
This shifted the 3-year party affiliation advantage that the Republican Party held while President Joe Biden was in office, reverting to where the Democrats stood during Trump’s first term.
While that’s certainly not bad news for Democrats as they look to regain one or both houses of Congress in November, it’s likelier that they’re benefiting from independents’ unhappiness with Trump, rather than building lasting goodwill for themselves. Trump’s approval among independents has fallen steadily over the year, while Democrats’ favorability remains historically low.
Young people drive independents’ strength
Younger Americans are driving the recent rise in U.S. adults identifying as independents.
The Gallup polling found majorities of Gen Z and Millennial adults – who were born between 1981 and 2007 – now identify as independents. Independent identity is softer in older generations, where only about 4 in 10 in Gen X currently call themselves independents and roughly 3 in 10 older adults do.
Young adults today are more likely than previous generations to identify outside of the Democratic and Republican Party. While 56% of Gen Z adults call themselves independents, that’s higher than in 2012, when 47% of Millennials said they were independents, and 1992, when 40% of Gen X adults identified that way, according to the Gallup analysis.
That creates another challenge for the parties to contend with, since appeals to the center to win the growing pool of independents could risk alienating the most committed people in their base.
