As an observer focused on geopolitics, it is hard not to be shocked by the current situation in Tehran and across Iran. This is not merely another “street protest”; it is the most severe challenge to the Iranian regime since 1979, and Tehran is currently enveloped in an extremely oppressive “wartime silence.”
Here are the latest developments as of February 4, 2026:
- Extremely Bloody Crackdown and “Surface Calm”
• Scale of Crackdown: According to the latest reports from the Associated Press (AP) and Human Rights Watch (HRW), Supreme Leader Khamenei has carried out the most brutal crackdown of his nearly 40-year rule over the past month.• Casualty Data: Despite the difficulty in verifying data due to internet shutdowns, human rights organizations estimate that the death toll may have reached thousands or even more (with radical estimates suggesting up to 30,000), while arrests have exceeded 50,000 people.• Current Situation: The streets of Tehran are now heavily controlled by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and Basij militia, with armored vehicles stationed in major squares and plainclothes patrols deployed in subway stations. Large-scale street protests have temporarily gone underground under the threat of violence.
- “Digital Black Hole” and Underground Resistance
• Internet Control: Since January 8, the Iranian authorities have imposed an almost complete internet shutdown. Communications remain severely restricted to this day, a move seen as a means to conceal the truth of the crackdown.• New Forms of Resistance: Although large-scale gatherings have decreased, students and vendors in Tehran continue to organize through small-scale assemblies, strikes, and civilian networks such as “Red Lion and Sun” for mutual medical aid and secret communication.
- Serious Divisions Within the Regime
• Escalating Internal Conflict: Al Jazeera reports unprecedented clashes between moderates, former leaders, and hardliners within the Iranian regime. Some former officials have even publicly stated that “the game is over,” warning that maintaining power through violence is unsustainable.• Survival Anxiety: The Iranian judiciary is currently busy conducting trials in absentia for 104 dissidents, attempting to reshape the regime’s authority through legal intimidation.
- External Pressure and “Diplomatic Firewall”
• Avoiding War: Aware of the fragility of the domestic situation, Khamenei is currently attempting to placate the United States by returning Iran to nuclear negotiations in Oman to avoid external military strikes.• International Sanctions: The European Union has officially designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, severely impacting Tehran’s overseas assets and morale.
As an American, our sense is: Tehran now resembles a volcano crater that could erupt again at any moment. Although Khamenei has temporarily suppressed the flames with force, the root causes of the protests—over 50% inflation, currency collapse, and extreme oppression—remain unresolved. The negotiations in Oman on Friday may very well be the regime’s last opportunity to buy itself some breathing space.
