On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation as the Liberal Democratic Party suffered consecutive defeats in the 2024 House of Representatives election and the 2025 Senate election, losing the majority seats in both houses of Congress and facing pressure from within the party to “forcibly abdicate.”
On September 22, the Liberal Democratic Party announced the presidential election, confirming the candidacy of Toshimitsu Motegi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, and Takayuki Kobayashi. Voting is scheduled for October 4. The election will involve 590 votes, 295 of which come from LDP members of parliament, and the remaining 295 votes are converted proportionally from local party members and “party friends.” A candidate receiving more than half of the votes in the first round will be elected; otherwise, the top two candidates will face off in the second round.
Polls show Shinjiro Koizumi and Sanae Takaichi leading the polls, with Yoshimasa Hayashi close behind. It’s highly unlikely that anyone will secure a majority in the first round, forcing a second round. The new LDP president will run for prime minister at the extraordinary session of the Diet on October 15th. Due to the split in the opposition, his chances of success are high, but he will face the dilemma of governing as a minority.
