The federal government’s immigration policies will lead to a slowdown in population growth and economic activity.

As of January 2026, the United States is facing a critical demographic turning point, driven by the “double squeeze” of historically low birth rates and aggressive immigration policies. The following is a brief commentary on these developments:
Demographic Turning Point
The latest projections released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in January 2026 indicate that the U.S. population is expected to be 7 million smaller over the next decade than previously anticipated a year earlier. This slowdown in growth is primarily attributed to the current administration’s tough immigration policies, including mass deportations and stricter entry restrictions, with approximately 320,000 people expected to be deported over the next decade.
“Immigration Safety Net”
The impact of these policies is exacerbated by the long-term decline in the domestic birth rate, which is projected to fall to 1.58 children per woman by 2026. Demographers warn that without immigration, the U.S. population will begin to shrink by 2030, as the number of deaths is expected to exceed the number of births each year. Historically, immigration has been a crucial buffer against this natural population decline, not only bringing in new residents but also boosting the birth rate, as foreign-born women tend to have more children on average than native-born women.
Economic and Fiscal Consequences
The rapid slowdown in population growth presents significant challenges for the U.S. economy:
Labor Shortages: A shrinking workforce is expected to constrain GDP growth, with national economic growth projected to reach only 1.3% by 2026.
Fiscal Pressure: An aging population—by 2030 all baby boomers will be over 65—will place immense pressure on Social Security and Medicare. With fewer workers supporting retirees, the worker-to-beneficiary ratio is projected to fall to around 2:1, threatening the long-term stability of the federal social security system.
Industry disruption: Industries heavily reliant on foreign workers, such as agriculture, construction, and healthcare, are already experiencing severe labor shortages.
While stricter immigration controls reflect a shift in recent political priorities, the resulting demographic changes represent a “demographic shock” that could make the United States more like aging societies such as Italy or Japan by the end of this decade.